GDP 2011 Q1 First Estimation LT, EE and LV

End of April Lithuania posted 1st estimation for 2011 Q1 GDP, showing significant growth by 6.9% over previous year Q1, and up from 2010Q4 (4.8%). Estonia posted 8.0% growth.
Meanwhile Latvia for 1st estimation posted "only" 3.4% growth, which is even less than growth in 2010Q4 (3.6%).

Chart updated on 10th of May with 2011Q1 1st estimations for LT, EE and LV:

GDP Forecasts for Baltics

Recently Danske Bank has upgraded forecasts for Baltic countries - upside. Expected increase was explained by higher domestic demand, which started to grow following robust Export. Also, seems that unemployment is slowly reducing. However, inflation based on external factors (energy prices, indirect taxes) might create risks for domestic consumption.

Below is GDP trend with average estimations for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania from Danske, Swedbank, Nordea and Eurostat (2011 and 2012):

EE GDP. Preliminary GDP figures for 2010

According to first estimation GDP in Estonia in 2010 advanced by 3.1% from 2009:

HICP in Baltics, Percentage change m/m-12

Comparing 3 Baltic countries, it is visible that, even though Latvia has lower inflation rate. The growth rate is faster, and in 2011 Q1 LV HICP growth speed will be probably the same as in Estonia in 2010 Q1.
Lithuania somehow slower in price index change and looks more stable.

GDP and Construction Industry Change 2009Q1-2010Q3

Recently published statistics from Eurostat show that changes in Construction Industry output are following GDP changes in all 3 countries. Lithuanian Construction data is ahead of its neighbors and already in Q3 showed significant improvement over 2009Q3 (by 6.4%).
I suspect, that with current alleviation of property market and such increase in construction output, already in the end of 1st half of 2011 we will see Construction moving GDP upwards for Lithuania. However, currently Construction has just gained some momentum.

On Retail Trade Changes in The Baltic States in November 2010

In November 2010 comparing to Nov 2009 (Y-o-Y) Retail Trade increases in Lithuania by 11,6%, Latvia by 8,1%, Estonia by 5,0%. Comparing to Oct 2010 (M-o-M) Retail Trade decreased in Lithuania by -3,7%, increased in Latvia by 0,2%, and decreased in Estonia by -4,0%.